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Schumpeter: The magical realism of Tesla
熊彼特：特斯拉的魔幻现实主义
And the blunt reality of geopolitics
与地缘政治的残酷现实
背景知识 Schumpeter 熊彼特，是《经济学人》商业板块最具代表性的专栏，这个名称来自提出了“颠覆式创新”的经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特，该专栏每周对金融、商业和管理领域的重要趋势做出评析。约瑟夫·熊彼特，1883年2月8日—1950年1月8日。被誉为“创新理论”的鼻祖。1912年，发表《经济发展理论》一书，提出了“创新”及其在经济发展中的作用，轰动了当时的西方经济学界。
magical realism(Magical realism, or magic realism, is an approach to literature that weaves fantasy and myth into everyday life. What’s real? What’s imaginary? In the world of magical realism, the ordinary becomes extraordinary and the magical becomes commonplace.) 魔幻现实主义
YOU HAVE to hand it tothe “technoking”. For all his impish self-aggrandisement, mockery of deadlines, baiting of regulators and soon-to-be sideline as a “Saturday Night Live” comedy host, Elon Musk is deadly serious about technology. So serious, in fact, that as he was discussing the nitty-gritty of neural networks on an earnings call on April 26th, Tesla’s boss did not miss a beat when what sounded like his infant son let out a wail in the background. The electric-car maker’s record net profit of $438m in the first quarter, the seventh straight in the black, came as an afterthought.
人们崇拜有着“特斯拉技术大王(technoking)”光环的马斯克。尽管埃隆·马斯克有着顽皮的自我膨胀、漠视最后期限、挑衅监管机构，而且很快将会成为《周六夜现场》(Saturday Night Live)这一喜剧综艺的主持人，但他对技术的态度是极其严肃的。以至于在4月26日的一场营收会议上，在讨论神经网络的实质问题时，背景中传来他儿子的哭声，但他丝毫没有受到干扰。这家电动汽车制造商，第一季度创纪录的净利润为4.38亿美元，并且后知后觉的是，这是该公司连续第七个季度实现盈利。
have to hand it to somebodyused to say that you admire someone 用来形容崇拜某人 You have to hand it to America. 对于美国你不服不行。
technoking 3月15日提交的监管报告中，在提交给美国证券交易委员会的报告中，特斯拉公司表示：“从2021年3月15日开始，马斯克和柯霍恩的职务头衔将修改为‘特斯拉Technoking’和‘Master of Coin’。Technoking”这样的高管职务或者头衔，过去在科技行业内几乎没有出现过，也没有现成的中文翻译。我们猜测这个词是由"Techno"和"King"组成，Techno是电子音乐里的一种流派，马斯克本人也是电子音乐爱好者，或许他是想把自己冠名“Techno之王”，彰显自己的音乐发烧友身份。此处姑且译为“技术大王”。
for alldespite 尽管；虽然 For all its clarity of style, the book is not easy reading. 这本书虽然文体清晰，但读起来并不容易。
baitto deliberately try to make sb angry by making cruel or insulting remarks （故意以侮辱性言语）激怒 He delighted in baiting his mother. 他以惹他妈妈生气为乐。
soon-to-be planned or destined to have a specified position or quality in the near future 即将成为的
Saturday Night Live 《周六夜现场》（Saturday Night Live，缩写SNL，又称周末夜现场）是美国一档于周六深夜时段直播的喜剧小品类综艺节目，节目由一系列讽刺恶搞当下政治和文化的喜剧小品组成，每周都有不同的客座主持人与音乐来宾加入，与该节目的固定演员一同演出。埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）将于5月8日首次主持这档老牌喜剧节目。
deadlyadv. extremely 极其；非常deadly serious/dull 极其严肃认真/乏味
nitty-gritty the basic or most important details of an issue or a situation 基本事实；重要细节Time ran out before we could get down to the real nitty-gritty. 我们还没来得及探讨真正的细节，时间就过去了
earnings n. the profit that a company makes 利润；收益export earnings 出口利润
not miss a beat to not slow down, pause, or lose one"s place, especially in spite of a potential distraction or disruption不放慢速度，不停顿
let out If you let out a particular sound, you make that sound. 发出 (声音) She let out a cry of horror. 她发出了惊恐的叫声。
straight adj. one after another in a series, without interruption 连续的；不间断的The team has had five straight wins. 这支队已连赢五场比赛了。SYN: consecutive
in the blackto have money in your bank account有盈余Remington"s operations in Japan are in the black. 雷明顿在日本的经营有盈余。OPP: in the red
Such is the allure of Tesla’s whirring money machine that many now give the benefit of the doubt to Mr Musk’s more eccentric claims. His latest involves artificial intelligence (AI). In the future Tesla will be remembered not just as an electric-vehicle (EV) and renewable-energy pioneer, he says, but also as an AI and robotics company. He bases this on a belief that it is close to cracking the challenge of self-driving cars using just eight cameras, machine learning and a computerised brain in the car that reacts with superhuman speed. He calls full self-driving “one of the hardest technical problems…that’s maybe ever existed”.
特斯拉嗡嗡作响的赚钱机器具有如此强大的吸引力，以至现在很多人都暂且相信了马斯克稀奇古怪的想法。他的最新研究涉及人工智能(AI)。马斯克说，未来，特斯拉不仅会作为电动汽车和可再生能源的先驱被铭记，还将会是人工智能和机器人公司。这样说的依据是——仅仅使用8个摄像头、机器学习和车内一个能以超人类速度做出反应的计算机化大脑，就已经接近于破解自动驾驶汽车的难题。而完全自动驾驶在马斯克看来是“有史以来最棘手的技术问题之一”。
give somebody the benefit of the doubt to accept what someone tells you, even though you think they may be wrong or lying but you cannot be sure 既有疑点，利归某人（法律用语）；对人家的怀疑既然未能证实，且往好的一面想
crack to find the solution to a problem, etc.; to find the way to do sth difficult 找到解决（难题等的）方法to crack the enemy"s code 破译敌人的密码
Amid the techno-optimism, though, Tesla also faces the dreary reality of everyday life. Though it expects to deliver about 50% more vehicles this year than in 2020, or around 750,000, like other carmakers it is struggling with a shortage of computer chips. The fiery crash of a Model S in Texas, killing two, has raised concerns about its self-driving technology (reports that its Autopilot function was involved are “completely false”, Mr Musk said). A pandemic-related shortage of engineers hit its output in China, source of much of its recent growth. And the Chinese authorities, which used to shower love onthe American firm, are showing signs of Tesla fatigue. Mr Musk may one day find the boundaries of his kingdom constrained not by physics but by geopolitics.
然而，即使在科技乐观主义者眼中，特斯拉也面临着乏味的日常现实问题。尽管它预计今年将比2020年多交付约50%的汽车，即75万辆左右，但和其他汽车制造商一样，特斯拉也在努力解决电脑芯片短缺的问题。一辆Model S在德克萨斯州发声严重撞车事故，造成两人死亡，这引发了人们对其自动驾驶技术的担忧(马斯克表示，有关其自动驾驶功能涉及的报道是“完全错误的”)。疫情之下，工程师短缺打击了该公司在中国的出口量，而中国正是特斯拉近期销售额增长的很大一部分。过去中国当局对这家美国公司宠爱有加，现在也表现出了厌倦。也许有一天，马斯克会发现，他的科技王国的边界不会是到物理的限制，而是受到地缘政治的限制。
techno-optimism an ideology that embodies the pessimism and the optimism above: the concern that technology could be used to make the world worse, the hope that it can be steered to make the world better. 技术乐观主义，对技术可能被用来使世界变得更糟的担忧，以及对技术能够被引导使世界变得更好的希望。
在得克萨斯州休斯敦北部，一辆2019年版特斯拉Model S，在通过弯道时冲出了道路，撞上了一颗大树并起火，导致车内两人遇难。当地相关部门在车内发现，两名遇难者中的其中一人在前排乘客座位上，另一人在后排，驾驶室无人，这也就意味着当时车内可能无人驾驶。
shower on ~ sth on sb to give sb a lot of sth 大量地给He showered gifts on her. 他送给她许多礼物
He is no longer alone in talking in grandiose termsabout Tesla. These days sober sortsvie to justify the firm’s valuation of $700bn or so, which puts all other carmakers in the shade. When describing its potential, Jed Dorsheimer of Canaccord Genuity, a Canadian asset manager, starts with the invention of the printing press in 15th-century Europe. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, believes Mr Musk’s EVs are in the midst of something akin to a “Model-T moment”—provided he can, like Henry Ford, crack mass manufacturing to make Teslas more affordable. Both compare Tesla to Apple, the American technology giant, to illustrate how Mr Musk could create a money-spinning ecosystem of gadgets and services that reinforce each other.
马斯克不再是唯一高谈阔论特斯拉的人。如今，头脑清醒的人竞相证明该公司7000亿美元左右的估值是合理的，这一估值让所有其他汽车制造商相形见绌。在描述其潜力时，加拿大资产管理公司Canaccord Genuity的杰德·多西默(Jed Dorsheimer)开口便是15世纪欧洲印刷机的发明。投资银行摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)认为，马斯克的电动汽车正处于类似于“Model-T时刻”的阶段——只要他能像亨利·福特(Henry Ford)那样，突破大规模生产，让特斯拉汽车的价格更实惠。两家公司都将特斯拉与美国科技巨头苹果(Apple)进行了比较，阐述了马斯克可以如何创造一个由电子产品和服务组成、互为补充和加强的盈利性生态系统。
in general/practical/financial etc terms used to show that you are describing or considering a subject in a particular way or from a particular point of view 笼统地讲/从实际意义上来讲/从财政方面等来讲
sort n. a particular type of person 某一种（或某一类）人he"s not that sort.他不是那种人。
viev. ~(with sb) (for sth) (formal) to compete strongly with sb in order to obtain or achieve sth 激烈竞争；争夺a row of restaurants vying with each other for business 彼此争抢生意的一排饭馆
put somebody/something in the shade to be so good or impressive that other similar things or people seem much less important or interesting相形见绌，使其他类似的事物或人显得不那么重要Coca Cola"s prize-winning advertising campaign has put all others in the shade. 可口可乐的获奖广告活动使其他广告相形见绌。
in the midst of if you are in the midst of an event or situation, it is happening around you 在…期间，在…中
akin to very similar to something类似的What he felt was more akin to pity than love. 他感受到的更像怜悯，而不是爱。
Model T 由福特汽车公司于1908年至1927年制造，成为珍贵的低成本，耐用性，多功能性和易于维护的车型。2017年马斯克提出了一个再次震动汽车产业的全新想法：汽油车，他宣布公司将从2022年开始量产一款汽油车，他计划把这款汽车称作Model T。新一代的汽油车将会很好的解决高成本问题，Model T将会是一台革命性的汽车，更多让消费者接受。
provided conj. used to say what must happen or be done to make it possible for sth else to happen 如果；假如；在…条件下 We"ll buy everything you produce, provided of course the price is right. 当然了，倘若价格合适，我们将采购你们的全部产品。
money-spinningadj. earning money or making a profit 盈利的It has also announced plans for another money-spinning auction of gems and jade宣布计划进行另一场宝石和玉石的盈利性拍卖。
For Tesla bulls, the maker of EVs indeed has more in common with that of iPhones than it does with establishedcar firms. Its boosters get excited about Silicon Valley-like innovation, not car sales. On Wall Street the value ascribed to Tesla’s relatively low-margin EV business is being eclipsed by the promise of more nebulous but potentially more lucrative ones, mostly involving software: the sort of connected services, such as maps, entertainment, ride-sharing, semi-autonomous driving and over-the-air upgrades that make Teslas a geek’s dream. Few assume, as Mr Musk does, that fully autonomous “robotaxis” are imminent. But some, such as Mr Jonas, think Tesla ride-sharing fleets, probably with someone at the wheel, will soon be rolling through city streets.
对于看好特斯拉的人来说，比起传统汽车公司，这家电动汽车制造商确实与iphone制造商苹果(Apple)有更多的共同点。令支持者感到兴奋的是硅谷式的创新，而不是销售汽车。在华尔街，特斯拉电动汽车业务所带来的价值相对较低，但其价值其实被模糊但可能更有利可图的业务所掩盖着——主要涉及软件的联网服务，如地图、娱乐、拼车、半自动驾驶和在线升级等，这一切使得特斯拉成为了计算机极客的梦想。很少有人像马斯克一样相信，完全自主的“机器人出租车”即将到来。但有些人，比如乔纳斯，认为，特斯拉的共乘租车车队(可能仍然需要一个司机)很快就会在城市的街道上普及。
bull n. a person who buys shares in a company, hoping to sell them soon afterwards at a higher price （预期证券价格上升的）买空者，多头The bulls argue stock prices are low and there are bargains to be had. 那些买空者认为股价很低，有些便宜股可以买进。
establishedadj. If you use established to describe something such as an organization, you mean that it is well known because it has existed for a long time. 老牌的These range from established companies to start-ups. 这些包括老牌公司和新兴公司。
boostern. a person who gives their support to sb/sth, especially in politics支持者，拥护者a meeting of Republican boosters 共和党支持者的会议
-likesuff. (in adjectives 构成形容词) similar to; typical of 类似…的；有…特征的a tiny worm-like creature. …一个像虫子一样的微小生物
ascribe toto consider that sth is caused by a particular thing or person 把…归因于；认为…是由于He ascribed his failure to bad luck. 他认为自己的失败是运气不好。
over-the-air adj. of or relating to any means of broadcast transmission. 无线传播的Many local stations broadcast HDTV over-the-air.很多地方台也通过空中传送播放高清电视。
at/behind the wheel (=driving a car) 在驾驶汽车
The magical realism may go beyond that. Besides AI and software, Mr Musk is also doubling down on Tesla’s original plan to build, alongside an affordable car, a zero-emission energy business. He has said his intention is to produce three terawatt-hours of battery capacity within a decade, more than 12 times as much as the goal of Volkswagen, its nearest EV competitor. Besides bringing the cost of cars down to $25,000 each, the batteries will also go towards Tesla’s home-energy-storage business. That would create what he calls a “giant distributed utility” that can cope with increased electricity demand as more people use EVs, as well as provide grid stability at times of bad weather. Mr Dorsheimer, who is particularly bullish on Tesla’s solar and storage business, thinks its energy brand could become “Apple-esque”.
特斯拉的魔幻现实主义可能不止步于此。除了人工智能和软件，马斯克还在加大对特斯拉最初愿景的投入，即在打造一款平价汽车的同时，打造零排放能源业务。他曾表示，他的目标是在10年内生产3太瓦时的电池，是最能与之匹敌的电动汽车对手大众(Volkswagen)目标的12倍以上。除了将每辆汽车的成本降至2.5万美元之外，这些电池还将用于特斯拉的家庭储能系统。这将创造出他所说的“巨型分布式公用事业”，能够应对越来越多的人使用电动汽车而增加的电力需求，并在恶劣天气时提供稳定的电网服务。Canaccord Genuity的杰德·多西默(Jed Dorsheimer)尤其看好特斯拉的太阳能和存储业务，他认为特斯拉的能源品牌可能会变得像苹果(Apple)一样。
doubling downBy extension, to significantly increase or strengthen effort, investment, or resolve toward some goal, strategy, or action so as to maximize the potential yield as a result加倍下注，增加或加强努力、投资以提高潜在能力With the market booming, many companies are doubling down their development in mobile apps and games. 随着市场的蓬勃发展，许多公司都在加倍开发手机应用和游戏。
grid n. a system of electric wires or pipes carrying gas, for sending power over a large area （输电线路、天然气管道等的）系统网络；输电网
-esque/esk / suff. in the style of …风格（或样式）的statuesque 雕像般的
Thinking different 不同凡“想”
Apple, worth more than three times as much as Tesla, is a flattering firm to be compared to. It is also the prime example of how deftly an American company can handle theebb and flow of superpower rivalry. Yet when it comes to geopolitics, Tesla may be at a disadvantage. It is just as global as Apple: last year it made half its sales outside America; 21% came from China. But the $2trn global car market is more than four times the size of the one for mobile phones. With many more firms involved, cars are more politically sensitive than smartphones. Initially countries like China and Germany threw down the welcome mat for Tesla’s gigafactories, partly to goad local firms into producing better EVs. Now that this is happening, the pressure to keep Tesla down is increasing.
苹果(Apple)的市值是特斯拉的三倍多，两者相提并论是对特斯拉的肯定。苹果(Apple)也是美国公司如何巧妙地应对超级大国兴衰起伏的典型例子。然而，在地缘政治方面，特斯拉可能处于不利地位。它跟苹果(Apple)一样全球化：去年其一半的销售额来自美国以外；21%来自中国。但2万亿美元的全球汽车市场是手机市场的4倍多。由于更多的公司参与其中，汽车比智能手机对政治更敏感。最初，像中国和德国这样的国家对特斯拉的超级工厂表示欢迎，部分是为了刺激当地公司生产更好的电动汽车。既然已经在建设了，那么打压特斯拉的力度也会逐步加码。
primeadj. aprime example of sth is one that is typical of it 典型的；有代表性的The building is a prime example of 1960s architecture. 这座大楼是20世纪60年代的典型建筑。
ebb and flowa situation or state in which something increases and decreases in a kind of pattern兴衰起伏The minister took up the theme and discoursed mellifluously on the ebb and flow of empires.大臣接过话锋，滔滔不绝地谈论起帝国的盛衰兴亡。
lay, put, roll, etc. out the welcome mat(for sb) (especially NAmE) to make sb feel welcome; to try to attract visitors, etc. 使感到受欢迎；设法吸引（客人等）
now that because the thing mentioned is happening or has just happened既然， 由于How do you fill your day now that you"ve retired? 现在你已退休了，怎样打发你的日子？
If Mr Musk is right that self-driving is the future of getting around, concerns about data-gathering and national security are bound to rise. China has already hinted it is sensitive to them. This year the government restricted the use of Tesla vehicles by military personnel and employees of some state-owned firms because of data-security concerns. Mr Jonas, for one, thinks Tesla’s position in China will be “substantially diluted” during the coming decade, as the car market morphs into a transportation utility run and regulated by the state in concert with local champions.
如果马斯克说的没错，自动驾驶是出行的未来，那么对数据收集和国家安全的担忧势必会上升。中国已经暗示其对数据的敏感性。今年，出于数据安全考虑，政府限制了军事人员和一些国有企业员工使用特斯拉汽车。例如，摩根士丹利的亚当·乔纳斯认为，随着汽车市场转变为交通公用事业，由国家与本土优秀企业共同运营和监管，特斯拉在中国的地位将在未来10年“大幅稀释”。
get around the way that someone gets around is the way that they walk or go from one place to another. 走动，出行It is difficult for Gail to get around since she broke her leg. 盖尔行走困难，因为她摔断了腿。
for oneused to give an example of someone or something例如，比如
in concert with working together with sb/sth 与…合作（或同心协力）He wants to act in concert with other nations. 他想和其他国家采取一致行动。
Cyber-paranoia may, of course, make it as hard to sell a Chinese car in America as an American car in China. And compared with the “insanely hard” problems Tesla is trying to crack, even superpower politics must seem like a minor irritation. But although Mr Musk can claim to rule over the realm of physics, politicians, bureaucrats and spooks run much of the real world. That is a source of power that even the technoking cannot disrupt. ■
当然，网络妄想症可能会让中国汽车在美国的销售变得和美国汽车在中国的销售一样困难。与特斯拉试图解决的“极其棘手”的自动驾驶问题相比，超级大国的政治问题似乎算不上什么麻烦。不过，尽管马斯克可以宣称自己统治着物理领域，但政界人士、官僚和间谍在很大程度上控制着现实世界。这是一种即使是有“特斯拉技术大王”之称的马斯克也无法扰动的力量来源。
cyber-/sab/ prefix. relating to computers, especially to messages and information on the Internet网络的
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